Author Archive for homer

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The Arctic Shifts to a New Climate Pattern in Which ‘Normal’ Becomes Obsolete

greenland-iceFrom the New York Times:

Warming continues to shrink the snow and ice cover that defines the Arctic, signaling the region’s shift to a new climate pattern, scientists said yesterday.

The area covered by sea ice hovered near its historic low this summer. In Greenland, record-high temperatures this year have helped accelerate the melting of the country’s massive ice sheet. Throughout the Arctic, permafrost is warming and the blanket of snow is shrinking.

Those changes appear to be long-lasting, said an international team of climate experts who wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report.

Its blunt headline? “Return to previous Arctic conditions is unlikely.”

“The Arctic is a system, and the system is changing,” said Don Perovich, a sea ice expert with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers who worked on the report. “It’s not just that sea ice is being reduced. There’s changes in Greenland, the atmosphere, the ecosystem, and these changes are affecting human activity.”

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Conservation Ecology: Home, Home Outside the Range?

329_1592_f11From Richard Stone in Science:

Conservationists and ecologists are at odds over the wisdom of moving species threatened by climate change to new homes.

HUAPING, CHINA—The stem of the ground-hugging orchid is bowed at the top, weighted down by five violet-tipped buds on the verge of blossoming. The swan’s-neck shape gives the flower a demure look. Or perhaps it’s just resigned to its fate: This is one of the last Geodorum eulophioides left on the planet.

The species is confined to a single hill behind a farmer’s home in southwest China’s Guangxi Province. Villagers “didn’t know they had something so precious here,” says Hong Liu, a conservation biologist at Florida International University and Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden in Miami. But Guangxi is one of the world’s nine orchid hot spots, and this patch of land where G. eulophioides resides is now part of Yachang Orchid Nature Reserve, a 220-square-kilometer territory with more than 130 orchid species. Liu and colleagues persuaded reserve managers in Huaping to give G. eulophioides some breathing space by fencing off the hill.

That action may also give scientists time to learn more about the rare orchid’s biology. But it’s unclear how long the species can hold out in the wild. Across China, climate change is nudging temperatures higher, disrupting rainfall patterns, and reducing the frequency of foggy days. Like the rest of northwestern Guangxi, Yachang suffered a serious drought last winter that forced rangers for the first time to pipe water into the heart of the reserve. And for the G. eulophioides on the reserve’s edge, the human threat hovers, like a sword of Damocles, just outside the hill’s chainlink fence.

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The Climate Change Debates

climate-scienceFrom an essay review by Philip Kitcher in Science:

In one of the earliest and most eloquent pleas for open discussion and debate, John Milton wrote:

And though all the winds of doctrine were let loose to play upon the earth, so Truth be in the field, we do injuriously, by licensing and prohibiting, to misdoubt her strength. Let her and Falsehood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the worse, in a free and open encounter. (1)

Two centuries after Milton, in the same year in which Charles Darwin published the Origin, John Stuart Mill’s essay On Liberty (2) added further arguments for the free exchange of ideas, suggesting that such exchange is vital for intellectual and social health. Although both Milton and Mill stand behind ourcurrent acquiescence in the value of extensive free discussion, both of them knew that they were opposing ancient suspicions about the viability of democracy. The political theorists and philosophers of the Greco-Roman world viewed ordinary folk as vulnerable to deception and exploitation. Allowed to determine the direction of the state, the folk would be easily seduced into believing falsehoods aligned with the interests of charismatic leaders, so that the popular voice would enthusiastically clamor for disastrous policies. Better, then, to entrust the ship of state to wise navigators, whose wisdom embraced both depth of understanding and moral integrity.

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Spring Is Starting Earlier: How Does This Seasonal Shift Affect Flora and Fauna?

earlyspringFrom the Union of Concerned Scientists series of articles on climate change:

Signs of spring are beginning to emerge in many parts of the United States. After months of darkness, it’s a welcome sight. But did you know that spring arrives distinctly earlier than it did 40 years ago?

Tree budding, the hatching of animal species, earlier blooms, and other traits of spring show up about 10 days sooner, researchers have long reported. What’s more, the earlier onset of spring has been directly linked to human-induced climate change.

While a premature spring is embraced by most people, it can be a mismatch for animals.

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Climate Change and the Integrity of Science

328_689_f1 A letter to the editor of Science from a group of prominent US scientists:

We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts. There is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves anything. When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the same as saying society should never take action. For a problem as potentially catastrophic as climate change, taking no action poses a dangerous risk for our planet.

For the complete letter and related material…

Scientists Call for ‘Climate Intervention’ Research With ‘Humility’

conference3From Eli Kintisch in ScienceInsider:

PACIFIC GROVE, CALIFORNIA—An international group of scientists, ethicists, and governance experts meeting here this week has agreed that research into large-scale modification of the planet is “indispensable” given the “threats” posed by climate change.

“It is thus important to initiate further research in the natural and social sciences to better understand and communicate whether alternative strategies to moderate future climate change are, or are not, viable, appropriate, and ethical,” declares a statement by the organizing committee released today at the close of the conference. “Further discussions [on geoengineering] must involve government and civil society.”

The statement capped a 5-day meeting on geoengineering, the idea of deliberate tinkering with the climate to reduce global warming. More than 175 scientists from 15 countries spanning the geosciences, ethics, business, and political science, convened on the leafy grounds of the Asilomar Conference Center along the Pacific Ocean in Northern California. Molecular biologist met here 35 years ago to hash out initial ethical and safety rules on recombinant DNA. So researchers dubbed this meeting “Asilomar 2.”

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Independent Board to Review Work of Top Climate Panel

ipcc_home_camels
From Reuters via the New York Times:

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) — An independent board of scientists will be appointed to review the workings of the world’s top climate science panel, which has faced recriminations over inaccuracies in a 2007 report, a United Nations environmental spokesman said Friday.The board’s work will be part of a broader review of the body, theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said Nick Nuttall, a spokesman for the United Nations Environment Program, who spoke on the sidelines of an international meeting of environment ministers here.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been under fire since it was pointed out that the 2007 report included a prediction that Himalayan glaciers would vanish by 2035, although there is no scientific consensus to that effect.

That brief citation — drawn from a magazine interview with a glaciologist who says he was misquoted — and sporadic criticism of the panel’s leader have fueled skepticism in some quarters about the science underlying climate change. The climate panel’s assessments are a crucial source of guidance for policy makers addressing global warming.

But mainstream scientists and the United Nations have said repeatedly that the evidence that human activity is a major factor in global warming remains unshaken.

Mr. Nuttall said the review body would be made up of “senior scientific figures” who could perhaps produce a report by late summer for consideration at a meeting of the climate panel in October in South Korea.

For the article…

Controversies Create Opening for Critics

ar4-synthesistraveltex_thumbFrom Gautam Naik and Keith Johnson in The Wall Street Journal:

The spate of recent controversies about climate research has given fresh voice to a group of scientists who question the mainstream view that human activity is warming the planet to dangerous levels.

Very few scientists disagree that the earth’s climate has warmed since 1850. But some have long argued that there are too many uncertainties about man’s role in the warming, and that other factors, such as solar activity and the greenhouse effect of clouds, could account for a large part of the observed warming trend. Among this group are researchers who have criticized the limitations of past temperature records and mathematical models used to forecast future effects.

Such views are getting a fresh airing on the heels of two recent controversies dogging climate researchers. A United Nations group, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has been heavily criticized for publishing an unsubstantiated claim that Himalayan glaciers would entirely melt away by 2035. A recent report also included several other claims later found to lack a scientific basis, including predictions of the impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa and the retreat of Amazonian rain forests, among others.

The political fallout from the IPCC’s mistakes was evident Tuesday when Texas authorities announced the state was taking legal action against the Environmental Protection Agency’s efforts to curb greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. In its filing, the state argued that the information the EPA used to make its decision is based on data from the IPCC. Alfredo “Al” Armendariz, EPA regional administrator for Texas and other nearby states, said he expected the agency’s efforts to withstand a court challenge.

For the article…

No Sign Yet of Himalayan Meltdown, Indian Report Finds

glacier

Hanging tough. Gangotri glacier, source of the Ganges River, retreated a few dozen meters from 2004 to 2008—"hardly an abnormal retreat" that would have been expected from rising temperatures, states a provocative new report. CREDITS (TOP TO BOTTOM): IIT MUMBAI; ISHWAR SINGH (PROVIDED BY V. K. RAINA)

From Pallava Bagla in Science.

Are Himalayan glaciers beating a rapid retreat in the face of global warming? That would seem to be the case, according to a flurry of recent reports by BBC and other mass media. But the picture is more complex—and poses scientific puzzles, according to a review of satellite and ground measurements released by India’s Ministry of Environment and Forests earlier this week.

The report, by senior glaciologist Vijay Kumar Raina, formerly of the Geological Survey of India, seeks to correct a widely held misimpression based on measurements of a handful of glaciers: that India’s 10,000 or so Himalayan glaciers are shrinking rapidly in response to climate change. That’s not so, Raina says. Even if it were, other researchers argue that severe loss of ice mass would not entail drastic water shortages in the Indian heartland, as some fear. Both concerns were cited in the Asia chapter of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) 2007 Working Group II report, which asserted that Himalayan glaciers “are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.”

Policy Prospects for Controlling Carbon

Aristides A. N. Patrinos, and Richard A. Bradley have a Perspective article entitled “Energy and Technology Policies for Managing Carbon Risk” in Science for 21 August 2009. They describe the state of play and discuss the prospects for control of global carbon emissions.

Despite some uncertainties, today’s scientific and political consensus is that the level of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needs to lead to atmospheric concentrations somewhere between 450 and 500 parts per million (ppm) (1) to avoid serious, if not catastrophic, effects on life and property. Achieving this goal poses some formidable challenges. There is inertia in the climate system (GHGs survive for generations), as well as in GHG-emitting capital investment. Furthermore, every economic sector and country emits. To meet these challenges, a broad range of actions will be required.

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